app.matakite.forecast

{
  "$type": "com.atproto.lexicon.schema",
  "defs": {
    "dateForecast": {
      "properties": {
        "point": {
          "description": "UTC datetime point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's date bounds.",
          "format": "datetime",
          "type": "string"
        },
        "quantiles": {
          "description": "Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing datetimes.",
          "items": {
            "ref": "#dateQuantile",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "maxLength": 99,
          "type": "array"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "point"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "dateQuantile": {
      "properties": {
        "level": {
          "description": "Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90.",
          "maximum": 99,
          "minimum": 1,
          "type": "integer"
        },
        "value": {
          "description": "UTC datetime at this percentile.",
          "format": "datetime",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "level",
        "value"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "main": {
      "description": "A forecast on a binary, multi, numeric, or date question. Revisions are new records with the same subject uri; the full trail is retained and used for time-weighted scoring. Appviews select the payload matching the cid-pinned question type and reject records with conflicting typed payloads.",
      "key": "tid",
      "record": {
        "properties": {
          "createdAt": {
            "format": "datetime",
            "type": "string"
          },
          "date": {
            "description": "Point and optional quantile forecast for a date question.",
            "ref": "#dateForecast",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "multi": {
            "description": "Probability mass for a multi question. Appviews require one entry per question option id, unique ids, and a total of 100.",
            "ref": "#multiForecast",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "numeric": {
            "description": "Point and optional quantile forecast for a numeric question.",
            "ref": "#numericForecast",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "probability": {
            "description": "Percent probability of YES for binary questions. 0 and 100 are permitted but brave. Integer by design (matches Metaculus/Manifold/Kalshi UX; calibration math is fine at integer precision; nuance lives in the forecast trail over time, not in a single value). If extreme-tail precision is ever needed, add an optional logOdds field; do not change this one. The field remains required for Lexicon evolution compatibility. Writers of multi, numeric, and date forecasts MUST set it to 50; appviews MUST ignore it when a typed payload is present. See docs/lexicon-evolution.md.",
            "maximum": 100,
            "minimum": 0,
            "type": "integer"
          },
          "rationale": {
            "description": "Optional short reasoning. Public, attached to the forecaster's track record.",
            "maxGraphemes": 300,
            "maxLength": 3000,
            "type": "string"
          },
          "subject": {
            "description": "The question being forecast (uri + cid). The cid pins the exact question version this forecast was made against.",
            "ref": "com.atproto.repo.strongRef",
            "type": "ref"
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "subject",
          "probability",
          "createdAt"
        ],
        "type": "object"
      },
      "type": "record"
    },
    "multiForecast": {
      "properties": {
        "probabilities": {
          "description": "Probability mass by stable option id. Entries sum to 100 under reference appview policy.",
          "items": {
            "ref": "#optionProbability",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "maxLength": 50,
          "minLength": 2,
          "type": "array"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "probabilities"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "numericForecast": {
      "properties": {
        "point": {
          "description": "Decimal-string point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's numeric bounds.",
          "type": "string"
        },
        "quantiles": {
          "description": "Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing values.",
          "items": {
            "ref": "#numericQuantile",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "maxLength": 99,
          "type": "array"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "point"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "numericQuantile": {
      "properties": {
        "level": {
          "description": "Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90.",
          "maximum": 99,
          "minimum": 1,
          "type": "integer"
        },
        "value": {
          "description": "Decimal-string value at this percentile.",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "level",
        "value"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "optionProbability": {
      "properties": {
        "optionId": {
          "description": "Stable id from the subject question's multi.optionIds array.",
          "maxGraphemes": 64,
          "maxLength": 640,
          "minGraphemes": 1,
          "minLength": 1,
          "type": "string"
        },
        "probability": {
          "description": "Percent probability assigned to this option.",
          "maximum": 100,
          "minimum": 0,
          "type": "integer"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "optionId",
        "probability"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    }
  },
  "id": "app.matakite.forecast",
  "lexicon": 1
}