app.matakite.forecast Documentation (EN)

main record

A forecast on a binary, multi, numeric, or date question. Revisions are new records with the same subject uri; the full trail is retained and used for time-weighted scoring. Appviews select the payload matching the cid-pinned question type and reject records with conflicting typed payloads.

Record Key tid Timestamp-based ID

Properties

createdAt string datetime Required

An RFC 3339 formatted timestamp.

date ref #dateForecast Optional

Point and optional quantile forecast for a date question.

multi ref #multiForecast Optional

Probability mass for a multi question. Appviews require one entry per question option id, unique ids, and a total of 100.

numeric ref #numericForecast Optional

Point and optional quantile forecast for a numeric question.

probability integer Required

Percent probability of YES for binary questions. 0 and 100 are permitted but brave. Integer by design (matches Metaculus/Manifold/Kalshi UX; calibration math is fine at integer precision; nuance lives in the forecast trail over time, not in a single value). If extreme-tail precision is ever needed, add an optional logOdds field; do not change this one. The field remains required for Lexicon evolution compatibility. Writers of multi, numeric, and date forecasts MUST set it to 50; appviews MUST ignore it when a typed payload is present. See docs/lexicon-evolution.md.

minimum: 0maximum: 100

rationale string Optional

Optional short reasoning. Public, attached to the forecaster's track record.

maxLength: 3000 bytesmaxGraphemes: 300 graphemes

subject ref com.atproto.repo.strongRef Required

The question being forecast (uri + cid). The cid pins the exact question version this forecast was made against.

View raw schema

{
  "key": "tid",
  "type": "record",
  "record": {
    "type": "object",
    "required": [
      "subject",
      "probability",
      "createdAt"
    ],
    "properties": {
      "date": {
        "ref": "#dateForecast",
        "type": "ref",
        "description": "Point and optional quantile forecast for a date question."
      },
      "multi": {
        "ref": "#multiForecast",
        "type": "ref",
        "description": "Probability mass for a multi question. Appviews require one entry per question option id, unique ids, and a total of 100."
      },
      "numeric": {
        "ref": "#numericForecast",
        "type": "ref",
        "description": "Point and optional quantile forecast for a numeric question."
      },
      "subject": {
        "ref": "com.atproto.repo.strongRef",
        "type": "ref",
        "description": "The question being forecast (uri + cid). The cid pins the exact question version this forecast was made against."
      },
      "createdAt": {
        "type": "string",
        "format": "datetime"
      },
      "rationale": {
        "type": "string",
        "maxLength": 3000,
        "description": "Optional short reasoning. Public, attached to the forecaster's track record.",
        "maxGraphemes": 300
      },
      "probability": {
        "type": "integer",
        "maximum": 100,
        "minimum": 0,
        "description": "Percent probability of YES for binary questions. 0 and 100 are permitted but brave. Integer by design (matches Metaculus/Manifold/Kalshi UX; calibration math is fine at integer precision; nuance lives in the forecast trail over time, not in a single value). If extreme-tail precision is ever needed, add an optional logOdds field; do not change this one. The field remains required for Lexicon evolution compatibility. Writers of multi, numeric, and date forecasts MUST set it to 50; appviews MUST ignore it when a typed payload is present. See docs/lexicon-evolution.md."
      }
    }
  },
  "description": "A forecast on a binary, multi, numeric, or date question. Revisions are new records with the same subject uri; the full trail is retained and used for time-weighted scoring. Appviews select the payload matching the cid-pinned question type and reject records with conflicting typed payloads."
}

dateForecast object

No description available.

Properties

point string datetime Required

UTC datetime point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's date bounds.

quantiles array of ref#dateQuantile Optional

Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing datetimes.

maxLength: 99 items

View raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "point"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "point": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "datetime",
      "description": "UTC datetime point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's date bounds."
    },
    "quantiles": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "ref": "#dateQuantile",
        "type": "ref"
      },
      "maxLength": 99,
      "description": "Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing datetimes."
    }
  }
}

dateQuantile object

No description available.

Properties

level integer Required

Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90.

minimum: 1maximum: 99

value string datetime Required

UTC datetime at this percentile.

View raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "level",
    "value"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "level": {
      "type": "integer",
      "maximum": 99,
      "minimum": 1,
      "description": "Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90."
    },
    "value": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "datetime",
      "description": "UTC datetime at this percentile."
    }
  }
}

multiForecast object

No description available.

Properties

probabilities array of ref#optionProbability Required

Probability mass by stable option id. Entries sum to 100 under reference appview policy.

maxLength: 50 itemsminLength: 2 items

View raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "probabilities"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "probabilities": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "ref": "#optionProbability",
        "type": "ref"
      },
      "maxLength": 50,
      "minLength": 2,
      "description": "Probability mass by stable option id. Entries sum to 100 under reference appview policy."
    }
  }
}

numericForecast object

No description available.

Properties

point string Required

Decimal-string point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's numeric bounds.

quantiles array of ref#numericQuantile Optional

Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing values.

maxLength: 99 items

View raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "point"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "point": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Decimal-string point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's numeric bounds."
    },
    "quantiles": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "ref": "#numericQuantile",
        "type": "ref"
      },
      "maxLength": 99,
      "description": "Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing values."
    }
  }
}

numericQuantile object

No description available.

Properties

level integer Required

Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90.

minimum: 1maximum: 99

value string Required

Decimal-string value at this percentile.

View raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "level",
    "value"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "level": {
      "type": "integer",
      "maximum": 99,
      "minimum": 1,
      "description": "Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90."
    },
    "value": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Decimal-string value at this percentile."
    }
  }
}

optionProbability object

No description available.

Properties

optionId string Required

Stable id from the subject question's multi.optionIds array.

maxLength: 640 bytesminLength: 1 bytesmaxGraphemes: 64 graphemesminGraphemes: 1 graphemes

probability integer Required

Percent probability assigned to this option.

minimum: 0maximum: 100

View raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "optionId",
    "probability"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "optionId": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 640,
      "minLength": 1,
      "description": "Stable id from the subject question's multi.optionIds array.",
      "maxGraphemes": 64,
      "minGraphemes": 1
    },
    "probability": {
      "type": "integer",
      "maximum": 100,
      "minimum": 0,
      "description": "Percent probability assigned to this option."
    }
  }
}